Location: Ipswich, England
Stadium: Portman Road
Date: Saturday 31 August
Kick-off Time: 15:00 BST / 10:00 ET / 07:00 PT
Out of the international break, Brighton look to continue their positive results at home against Ipswich Town.
A red card changed the scope of Brighton’s last fixture vs. Arsenal. The Seagulls gained a man advantage early in the second half and captured a point as big road underdogs.
As for Ipswich, they finally earned points. A Liam Delap strike gave the Tractor Boys a lead, but it ended 1-1 against Fulham.
Brighton vs. Ipswich Town Prediction
My prediction for Brighton vs. Ipswich is to use the Brighton as a parlay piece.
I’ll pair it with the Crystal Palace for a price of +121. Head to my Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City prediction for a breakdown of the Palace moneyline.
Regarding Brighton, the Seagulls thoroughly dominated newly promoted teams last season.
Even though they finished 1-2-0 (W-D-L) in the three home games against such teams, two were played on short rest following a Thursday match, with one featuring a Brighton red card.
Still, they managed to post a +6.7 post-shot xGDiff in the two matches played on level terms, per fbref.com.
Plus, Fabian Huerzler’s side dominated Manchester United in their lone home match of the season. The game finished 2-1 Brighton, but the Seagulls won the psxG battle 2.5-0.4.
It should be fairly obvious Manchester United is a superior team to Ipswich Town, who have admittedly faced a difficult schedule.
However, just before the break, they pulled out a lucky 1-1 draw against Fulham. For the match, the Tractor Boys lost the psxG battle 1.1 to 0.4.
Finally, Brighton matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012, home favorites priced between -330 and +114 with 13-15 days between games are 73.1% SU, assuming their previous game margin fell between -1 and +2.
When those teams are priced between -330 and -230, they improve to 85.2% SU.
As a result, Brighton should cruise against Ipswich out of the break.
Fulham team news
Fulham head to Suffolk with a clean bill of health. much to the relief of manager Marco Silva. The 2-0 win over Birmingham City in the Carabao Cup midweek saw some summer signings handed minutes, including Joachim Andersen, Sander Berge and Jorge Cuenca.
However, the team that faces Ipswich is unlikely to be too dissimilar from the one that beat Leicester last weekend, with Rodrigo Muniz, Antonee Robinson, Smith Rowe and Iwobi all returning to the starting XI.